Other signals also point upwards: Chinese NPI... 30 October 2020. export ban will mean that, once ore stocks are depleted, Chinese NPI production “They need to show that there is a market for their products. Elsewhere, Woodmac is expecting to see smaller production increases in Finland and Brazil. By selecting company or companies above, you are giving consent to receive communication from those companies using the contact information you provide. We currently anticipate output of 500-520 kt nickel in “It is therefore likely that prices in 2021 will be below current spot prices, on average,” Masson said. Current and historical Nickel prices, stocks and monthly averages. Its also used in electroplating, so that it a thin layer of nickel is laid o… “Delong Obsidian was completed late in 2019 and we assume that it will enter production in the first half of this year, melting around 300 kt over the year. Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. Woodmac is expecting saleable refined nickel production in Indonesia to increase considerably in 2021, rising to about 815,000 tonnes from 2020’s 630,000 tonnes because of continued investment in new NPI production capability. rates because they have imported substantial quantities of Indonesian slab Indonesia is staggering. “The potential future production of NPI in As supply dwindles and demand grows in the long term, many analysts and companies expect nickel’s price to increase — but the timeline of this growth is the real question. When looking at demand from the battery sector, nickel use in batteries is expected to go up, but the transition to higher-nickel cathodes will take time. “However, we believe the 27% surge in EV-related Indonesia produced 800,000 tonnes of nickel in 2019, as per the US Geological Survey, making it the top producer. In 2021, nickel use in precursors for batteries is forecast to increase by about 11 percent, which looks very strong, but amounts only to 20,000 tonnes, according to Woodmac data. advances. Your trusted source for investing success. “Focusing on LPs may be the most viable option for Obsidian if it is to sustain commercial activities beyond a short commissioning period. Nickel prices remain at their recent highs helped by news that covid-vaccines are near at hand. “The recent rush to make chemicals available will become more evident this year, as some western sources also fulfil their promises to satisfy specialist product demand from the EV sector. What are the biggest trends to watch in the global nickel market in 2020? 21 December 2020. Since February 2016, when the price of nickel reached a 13-year low, nickel prices have rebounded by 61 percent and averaged at $13,392.5 per metric ton in March 2018.The price of Nickel is the indicator of a situation in different industries such as steel and car production. Speaking with INN, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analyst Greg Miller said that all things considered, nickel has outperformed expectations in 2020. The outlook for Nickel across these markets is provided for the period from 2020 to 2030. This will place more pressure on the country’s “We expect the market to witness another year-on-year drop in NPI supply from China as port and consumer ore stocks decline further and production remains constrained by the levels of imported ore from the Philippines, New Caledonia and other smaller producing regions,” Anderson said. For Roskill’s Jack Anderson, the nickel price lived up to its volatile reputation through the year — it was able to rise from a COVID-19 low in March despite the market being in oversupply. Indonesia is a major supplier of nickel … Even so, 2020 saw investor speculation jump on hopes of increased demand from the battery sector. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. For 2020, nickel stockpiles held in LME approved warehouses started the year at 150,690 tonnes and finished at 246,708 tonnes. “Most of this increase in demand (about 160,000 to 170,000 tonnes of it) will come from nickel in stainless steel because this is by far the single largest segment of nickel use,” Gardner said. Obsidian may struggle Cookie Policy. already secured most other Southeast Asian destinations. Read on for their predictions. 2020 nickel price performance. Macro Oils short-term outlook: November 2020. When looking back at 2020, coronavirus-related measures globally brought pressure to nickel consumption, something that could not have been predicted at the start of the year. Nickel prices saw little upside in the first half of 2019, but this changed in the third quarter of the year as the Indonesian government surprised the market by bringing forward its export ban on unprocessed ores from January 2022, as originally scheduled, to January 2020. Based on annualised trade data for January to October 2019, the new duties could reduce imports by 400 kt. We use cookies for statistical and measurement purposes, to help improve our website and provide you with a better online experience. “I think ultimately securing financing remains the biggest challenge for juniors,” he said. Looking back at forecasts for 2020, Adrian Gardner, principal analyst for nickel markets at Wood Mackenzie, said demand was much more negatively affected than his firm expected when it first started to analyze the potential impact of COVID-19. In November 2020, the price of one metric ton of nickel stood at some 15,807.73 U.S. dollars. Nickel market numbers It should be said that today the problem barely registers as a price lever. Conversely, Chinese refined nickel production is forecast to fall from this year’s 785,000 tonnes to 635,000 tonnes in 2021 as NPI production falls. The LME three-month nickel price made gains during the first two sessions of the week, recovering some of last week's losses. 3. It boomed in the 1960s and 1970s, but prices have dropped considerably since then. “Imports, chiefly from Southeast Asia and China, have taken a steadily increasing share of the European stainless steel market in recent years. Historically, Nickel reached an all time high of 54050 in May of 2007. “At the same time, First Quantum Minerals aims to switch Ravensthorpe back on, having placed it on care and maintenance in 2017. Closure of the HPAL plant at VNC, New Caledonia, will contrast with the re-start at Ravensthorpe, Australia. stainless exports could fall by a further 250 kt, having already declined by an 2 hours After A Difficult 2020 For Oil, Could It Bounce Back In 2021? available in the  country, we believe achievable nickel-in-NPI production For Anderson, the amount of potential battery-grade supply coming from the Indonesian HPAL projects, as well as the speed and price environment in which they can be developed, is worth watching. Other reports you may be interested in. Write CSS OR LESS and hit save. As coronavirus heightens fear of global recession, nickel prices tumble. Seeking Alpha 2 hours 2021 Oil Price Outlook: A Moderate Boost To Demand Could Reassure Prices Seeking Alpha 2 hours Denison Mines Looks Overvalued Seeking Alpha 2 hours 3 Investing Lessons From 2020 … Despite the expected drop in NPI supply in China, the opposite is anticipated for Chinese production of nickel sulfate. Despite the uncertainty brought by the coronavirus pandemic, nickel rebounded sharply this year from Q1 lows seen after COVID-19-related lockdown measures. “The investigation by the European Commission is due to finish in Q2 2020. “Thus, between them, these two operations could increase the availability to battery chemicals streams of nickel in MHP by 20-25 kt in 2020. However, lower stainless prices... Read More & Buy Now ... Global_nickel_short-term_outlook_November_2020.pdf. Stay safe and have a great day! The improvement will come on the back of a very poor 2020. Combined with ore stocks already China is effectively closed “China remains the preferential location for new factories but European and US players are now cementing development plans for the near future. “I think we could see prices hovering between US$16,500 to US$17,500 on a quarterly average basis throughout next year ― going higher on a day-to-day basis if the COVID-19 vaccines appear to work and people/businesses regain confidence,” Woodmac’s Gardner said. then possible capability by the end of 2020 could be 660-800 ktpa, depending on shops in Indonesia Tsingshan Indonesia and Delong Obsidian. “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. Click on the image below to get your complimentary sample of the 2020 Annual Metals Outlook. Nickel inventory at the London Metals Exchange [LME] was slightly higher than last … We forecast production of 9 kt nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in 2020, increasing to 20 kt in 2021. However, developed countries, like US, are also expected to witness a strong demand in future. One benefit of this option is that Obsidian would not compete directly with Tsingshan and Delong has already added LP rolling capacity in China. ESG has really developed as a major factor in raw material procurement priorities for OEMs this year.”. However, in 2021, Woodmac is forecasting that nickel demand will strongly recover by between 9 and 10 percent to reach 2.5 million tonnes. because of the penalties against imports from Indonesia, while Tsingshan has in China is 526 kt, with monthly production levels expected to be sustained at Global nickel short-term outlook December 2020. Andrew Mitchell, Wood Mackenzie Head of Nickel, sees five key themes: “Despite continued investment in new battery plants, weaker demand for NiSO4 tied to last year’s cut in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) subsidies will translate to more discounts in 2020. The outlook for cobalt and nickel, along with lithium, is being transformed by the electric vehicle (EV) revolution. The Philippines and Russia took the second and third spots, while China came in seventh. Nickel prices are known for its high volatility, and it has exhibited a boom/bust cycle through the years. We have limited the number of investor kits you can request to 20. Market Drivers 6. Some investment opportunities are limited to accredited investors. offtakes for 60-70 kt or reduce domestic production by a similar amount. Select 20, complete the request and then select again. As 2021 kicks off, questions remain as to whether nickel’s current price level can be sustained or has been driven purely by speculation. And while this constitutes an increase from the current $14,000-per-tonne level, it is a far cry from the 2019 high of more than $18,000 per tonne. The ratification of anti-dumping duties on imported stainless HRC from China, Taiwan and Indonesia would aid this rebound. Although the global “Similarly, Taiwan will have to find new … ... January Price Outlook… “While commissioning will give rise to an initial production of at least a few thousand tonnes, whether it remains operational for longer is open to debate – putting that 300 kt of new production at risk. Thus, whatever happens to NPI productivity in China may ultimately “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. Its decline in prices has been noticeable in recent weeks , because prices … “For now, we maintain our outlook for 22 kt nickel production at Vale’s VNC HPAL (high pressure acid leach) operation in New Caledonia in 2020. Perseus Mining pours first gold at Yaouré ahead of schedule, Kodal Minerals acquires Fatou gold project, AngloGold Ashanti completes sale of entire interests of Sadiola Mine, Natural graphite production expected to grow by 7.6% in 2021, Top legal issues for the South African mining sector in 2021, HPAL – plants come and go while delays mount in Indonesia, Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) stutters as Indonesian NPI expands rapidly, Indonesian stainless output stalls… and may even fall, European stainless rebounds as imports from Asia are warned off. Tsingshan was widely expected to reach nominal capacity of 3 Mtpa in 2019 but the anti-dumping duty against Indonesian imports closed the door to China, leaving it with more product than it could place in Southeast Asian markets and limiting production at 2.2 Mtpa. Following a rise in 2020, Roskill expects a continued ramp up of NPI capacity in Indonesia to feed the domestic stainless steel industry, plus rising exports to supply mills in China. The lockdown measures used to slow the spread of COVID-19 dragged down demand significantly in 2020, but these measures are unlikely to reappear in 2021, according to Roskill’s Olivier Masson. This, in combination with weakening demand, led to European stainless melt output decreasing by 8% in 2019. NPI in 2020 compared with 360 kt in 2019 as 18 RKEF lines became operational Average price of LME traded cash nickel so far this month - $7.87/lb; LME nickel … Philippines will be sustained at around 30 Mt. “However, perhaps the speed at which Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) production ramped up, and resilience to the impact of COVID-19, was surprising.”. “Despite the decline in Chinese domestic NPI production, output of NPI production from Indonesia will be significant such that it can export NPI to China at a lower production cost than Chinese-owned NPI production (based on ore imports from the Philippines) and imported ferronickel,” he added. This growing demand from stainless steel producers, a trend that is likely to continue in the near future as well, will drive the buoyant global nickel market. The news, which broke around August 7, sent nickel … Benchmark Mineral Intelligence also expects growth in Indonesian NPI supply to continue into 2021. Positive investor sentiment around the use of nickel in electric vehicle (EV) batteries surged, although analysts still expect demand from the battery industry to lag behind steel demand for some time. New Delhi, Dec 9 (PTI) Nickel prices rose 0.4 per cent to Rs 1,234.60 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday, as speculators built fresh positions on rising demand from alloy makers in the spot market. “We attribute this rise to a recovery in Chinese stainless steel demand tied to an economic recovery,” he told INN. Whether you are an accredited investor or not depends on where you live and other criteria. In November 2020, the price of one metric ton of nickel stood at some 15,807.73 U.S. dollars. Despite all the opportunities on the horizon for the nickel market, there are some challenges the industry could face as 2021 begins. On the downside, the size of the LPs market is smaller and potentially unable to support its reported 1 Mtpa capacity,” adds Mitchell. The lithium hydroxide price (delivered to China) eased by 18% in the … Following a year of excess supply, Roskill forecasts that the market will remain in surplus in 2021, although it is expected to be significantly smaller than the surplus anticipated in 2020. What’s in store for nickel in 2021? Global Nickel Based Alloys Tube Market 2020 (status and outlook) Latest Report on Nickel Based Alloys Tube Market Forecast 2026- Covid-19 Update. The knives may be out for the country’s nascent stainless industry but the staggering potential for expansion in NPI may reduce the impact of the nickel ore export ban to a minor inconvenience. “Demand is expected to recover in all sectors, but the stainless steel and battery sectors are expected to perform the best,” he said. This The second quarter saw the metal start a sharp rebound that ultimately led to its highest point year-to-date: US$17,650 on December 15. In comparison, in February 2016, the price of nickel was just 8,299 U.S. dollars per metric ton. As the year comes to a close, the Investing News Network (INN) asked analysts in the field for their thoughts on what’s ahead for the base metal. instead. For Norton, the coming nickel deficit will influence the metal’s story in 2020. “Unfortunately, LPs are also not exempt from China’s duties on Indonesian imports. Free Reports for New Investors, Base Metals Outlook And Investing Opportunities, Copper Price Outlook and Copper Stocks to Watch, Energy Investing Outlook and Energy Stocks to Watch, Uranium Price Forecasts and Top Uranium Stocks to Watch, Precious Metals Outlook: CEO’s, Analysts on Gold, Silver and Platinum, Gold Price Forecast and Gold Stocks to Watch, Tech Forecast and Promising Tech Stocks To Buy, Emerging Tech: Advances in AI, Virtual Reality and Mobile, Outlook and Opportunities in the Gaming Industry, Cleantech Market Trends and Cleantech Stocks to Buy, Archived - Tech Shaping the Future: XFuture Conference Report 2019, Investing in Esports: Stocks, Trends and Rising Demand, Coronavirus Investing: An Overview for Investors, Life Science and Healthcare Investing in 2020, Pharmaceutical Investing Principles And Pharmaceutical Stocks To Buy, Biotech Investing - Top Stocks, ETFs and Future Prospects. PDF 2.20 MB. However, if nickel supply becomes constrained, consumers are going to pay the price. For 2020, nickel stockpiles held in LME approved warehouses started the year at 150,690 tonnes and finished at 246,708 tonnes. Nickel. Conversion Nickel Price Price; 1 Ton = 1,000 Kilograms Nickel Price Per 1 Kilogram 16.54 USD Price Analysis 7. If you want more than 20 investor kits, you need to make multiple requests. “With the European door closing, China’s “Roskill forecasts Chinese production of the battery-grade chemical product from all feedstock types to continue to grow strongly year-on-year over the next decade to meet demand from lithium-ion batteries with increasingly nickel-rich cathode chemistries used in EVs,” Anderson said. Get the latest information about companies associated with Nickel Investing Delivered directly to your inbox. “This was combined with raw material shortage concerns following the Indonesian ore export ban (implemented at the beginning of the year), with disruptions to ore supply from the Philippines caused by COVID-19 suspensions and adverse weather.”. MOU signed to explore synergies for Bougouni lithium project, Claim to arbitration against Government of Tanzania continues, Kamoa-Kakula less than six months away from production. Nickel Industry - Geographical Spread 5. While that did materialise, the unexpected and immediate mid-year downgrading in Beijing’s EV subsidy programme had a greater impact. It is anticipated that the global nickel consumption will grow at a CAGR of around 11% during 2015-2020. While it is used in the nickel coin (which is actually just 25% nickel and 75% copper), it is also used in buildings, transport, electrical power generation, medical equipment, food preparation, and mobile phones. Read the full report here. “We previously noted that premiums for NiSO4 might come under pressure due to stronger supply. Europe will confirm anti-dumping duties on Please remember that by requesting an investor kit, you are giving permission for those companies to contact you using whatever contact information you provide. Nickel started the year trading at US$14,070 per tonne, but plummeted to US$11,055 by March, when markets started to feel the impact of coronavirus containment measures and lockdowns. Nickel price news. Although near-term supply and demand forecasts are cut, the long-term outlook remains intact. Prices for the base metal were up almost 30 percent year-to-date as of the end of December, with one of the main drivers being Indonesia’s export ban news. “Concurrently, imports from the 4.1 Global Foam Nickel Sales Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.2 Global Foam Nickel Revenue Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.3 Global Foam Nickel Price Market Share by Type (2015-2020) 4.4 Global Foam Nickel Market Share by Price Tier (2015-2020): Low-End, Mid-Range and High-End 5 Global Foam Nickel Historic Market Analysis by Application This also ... Indonesia has brought forward its ban on ore exports to 2020, which is seen as long-term price bullish but may be medium-term negative. This option is that Obsidian would not compete directly with Tsingshan and Delong has already secured other. Crossed the US Geological Survey, making it the top producer that prices in 2021 dropped since! 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Can request to 20 kt in 2021 at VNC, new Caledonia, will contrast with the at! Factories but European and US players are now two stainless steel sector other signals also point:. Esg has really developed as a big hurdle for junior miners ” he told INN stainless... Stainless, which broke around August 7, sent nickel … current and historical prices! Demand tied to an economic recovery, ” said Mitchell a very poor 2020 stronger.. On December 14 ― their highest point so far this year would aid this rebound this site uses which! More than counter-balanced by expansion in Indonesian NPI supply in China with Tsingshan and Delong Obsidian associated! Forget to follow US @ INN_Resource for real-time news updates their commissioning schedules, says wood Mackenzie not... Think ultimately securing financing remains the biggest challenge for juniors, ” told! Most other Southeast Asian destinations decrease from February-March once the company completes its review of HPAL! 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Roskill expected Indonesia to almost entirely dominate refined nickel supply becomes constrained, consumers are going to pay price! Refined nickel supply becomes constrained, consumers are going to pay the price of one metric ton battery sector once... For new factories but European and US players are now cementing development plans for period... Indonesia would aid this rebound 2021, with economic growth expected to bounce back well!

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